For Those Who Are Skeptical

Hindsight Bias, or Knew-It-All-Along phenomenon is a social cognitive error where people think they actually have knowledge of the outcome of an event long before it happens. Ali and Farah suddenly decide to get a divorce after a 2-year marriage? You knew it all along. Prime Minister A wins in the most recent election? You knew it all along. The economy faces the most devastating era in the decade? You knew it all along.

I don't want to talk about this generally, rather I want to talk about this in the context of people who don't believe in Psychology, who think that Psychology is just a common sense. They claim that most of what Psychologists study involve things that we can predict on our own. They will say that they knew it all along when Psychologists said that studies show that people are less likely to help when there are more people in the place where the emergency happens. They will say they knew it all along when Psychologists reported that symmetry is one of the major factors of attractiveness. If these people knew it all along, then why is there a need for psychology and psychological studies?

The reasons I outlined below:

1) Bell curve in statistic (or the normal distribution)

When Psychologists conduct a study, they would like to know how the curve in the graph looks like. The most usual curve that they are more likely to find out is the normal distribution along the graph - or as they call it the bell curve. The bell curve is when a distribution of individuals' scores is even, creating a curve that resembles a bell.

What does this mean? This means that Psychologists do not claim on extremity, they acknowledge the fact that there will always be: 1) events that are likely to occur, and 2) events that are less likely to occur, but could occur nonetheless. Take a look at the picture of a bell curve above, the one in the middle is event that is more likely to occur, and the extreme ends are the proportion of events that are less likely to occur. So, the aim of psychological studies is to inform you which event/outcome that would most likely to occur when a behavior is performed. So, the phenomenon that help is more likely to be offered when there are fewer people in an emergency place is the event that is reported from psychological studies that is located in the middle of the bell curve. The end extreme might tell you that even when there are fewer people in the emergency place, but someone decides to help anyway. So, it's an exception. But it's less likely to occur depending on various factors.

2) Our "knowing it all along" is a 50-50 chance of being correct

When you have an assumption in your mind of how things would be, you have a 50-50 chance of your assumption being correct. And when you find out that your assumption is actually correct, this is where you profess so gloriously, "I knew it all along, I don't know why there is a need to study this..." But when you are wrong, you either lie and say that you knew it all along too, or you just keep silent, trying not to put your wrongness into spotlight.

Rather than making a random assumption and waiting for your 50% chance of being correct, Psychological studies make an informed decision by looking at the bell curve and see what event that is more likely to occur. When the outcome is what is predicted to occur, then it is not them knowing it all along, it is informed. But when the outcome is not as predicted to occur, then there must have been other factors that chip in. For example, event when you found out that someone actually decides to help even when there are fewer people in the emergency case, there might have been a personality factor, personal factor, or environmental factors that lead to the decision of that person to help. So, this leads to another study that can help in future decision making. The point is, it is always informed and does not come from "gut".

So, these are the reasons to convince you skeptics out there that psychology is a legitimate science because it uses legitimate and rigorous research method to study about something. It might be about the everyday life, but psychology is the distinction between assuming and predicting.

Kids Are Smart When You Let Them

Last week I was baking cookies for my family. As usual and expected, my 6 out of 8 nieces and nephews were very excited that they got to eat some double choc chip cookies soon. they'd check in on me and the cookies every now and then to see if they could eat some if the first batch was done baked. So, I gave them the whole first batch for them to finish and as soon as they were done eating the cookies, they were expecting the second batch like flies swarming all over bad meat (bad methapor, but they did seem like flies - running around back and forth). After the third batch, I asked them to stop eating because apparently I haven't got any and I want some too, and also I need to pack some for my brother and sister who would come later and also I need to keep some for the other two nephews who were not home for later. But there was this one niece of mine who we call Sabrina who would not understand the meaning of "no" and keep asking. Because she's making this cute face that my other niece and nephews couldn't make, she was an exception.

Then, I baked my fourth batch and Sabrina came to me with me holding a hot pan of freshly baked cookies. I warned her that it was hot and she distanced away for a second then came back and I had to warn her again. Of all my nieces and nephews, she'd be the most courageously strong. She'd be the one to just lift up a hot bowl of cooked noodle when she's hungry, or stand very closely to the road to get into the car, etc. And this time, she couldn't wait and just went to me and wait beside me for her cookie. Then, her arm got burnt by the pan and for the first 5 seconds, we didn't know. We didn't know because she wouldn't scream or cry like other normal small kids - mostly because she didn't want to get scolded by us for not listening to what I told her. Then, my sister noticed that her arm got red and the skin peeled off and then we knew she got burnt.

This is Sabrina, who is a sucker for posing in front of the camera...

After holding it back, she finally cried very loudly. We knew that it was so painful because she was just a 4 year old kid. We did everything to calm her down and she just wouldn't shut up. But interestingly, looking at her fellow nephews and niece playing in the other room, she slowly calmed down and hesitantly joined them to play together. I scolded her a little earlier, just to show her that when I told her something, I meant business. But now, looking at her slowly regaining her spirit and sanity, I felt sorry and regretful. Then, I asked her to join me going out for a ride to buy something my mother asked me to.

Then, I asked her in the car (in Malay of course), "Sabrina, why would you touch the pan? You know that it's hot right?" She just nodded slightly with her unhappy face. Then, I went on and on about when I told her something, she needed to listen. After that, she said two things that broke my heart. First, I offered her a cookie I brought along and she refused saying, "No, I am scared of getting burnt again." This shows how easy for kids to be sensitive to "traumatic" events. And then, she continued, "It's my fault, because I didn't wait for you to give me the cookie..."

I was surprised. I didn't even say anything about waiting, or patience or anything like that. But she had the ability to reason and realized that if she had waited for a bit more, she'd not get burnt. It broke my heart because all this while we thought that we needed to remind her again and again in the aftermath of getting burnt because we wanted to make sure that she got the message, but she got it just fine. She understood her behavior and this is something even most adults couldn't do.

Do you remember my post about even when we don't realize it, we are actually progressing? Kids do too. But we, as adults, keep forgetting that kids also have their own capacity to understand the world and understand how it works. Although they need guidance from adults, but when you let them and when you ease down on the restricting, they could actually exhibit potential more than we would have expected. And then, you can be proud as I am a proud uncle of Sabrina.

Just-World Hypothesis

So, finally today I had the opportunity to return back home after a while in the university and usually at home, I watch drama on the TV that my family watches everyday. And when I finally got the chance to settle down and sit in front of the TV, I grunted when I found out that they were watching an Indonesian drama about a lady who was abused by the villagers resulting from an evil influence of another evil lady. I am usually OK with Indonesian movies especially the Islamic ones because sometimes they address issues that Malaysian films rarely do like the effects of tsunami, a journey of an Islamic scholar who found love, and so on. But this is one of those drama programs that have this lazy writing with the clichéd "good guy got abused then suddenly miraculously, bad guy got into accident and then begged the good guy to forgive him."

I mean, it's noble to give the message that patience is a virtue, but for the guy to be abused, just sits there and waits for miracles, and then suddenly the bad guy is involved in an unfortunate incident that leads to a miraculous change of evil personality to a saintly one is just too over-the-top for me. I mean, this is the classic example of just-world hypothesis - a concept coined by a social psychologist to describe the erroneous kind of thinking of someone who believes that good people get good things and vice versa. In another way of putting it, the world always works in a way where justice will always restore moral balance.

Just imagine, the good lady in the drama just went along with the abuse. When she was asked to take her small business elsewhere, she went away and took it elsewhere, when she was asked to move out of the village, she did just that and of course the bad guy was happy until the latter got into an accident and became poor while the good lady became rich and the role is reversed. Don't you think it's a an easy way out to solve a large-scale conflict? It's a lazy writing, isn't it?

Not to mention that you are giving out the ideas to those naive gullible individuals out there that patience alone can be enough to assure you a good life. No need for efforts or good planning to get what you desire in life. No need to do things you don't want to just because it's a requirement to get what you want. No need to be heartbroken because the the obstacles seem to be bigger than you can handle. Now I'm starting to sound like I'm ranting.

And then after the drama, suddenly there is a behind-the-scene for a new self-professed unique Malay film called "Strawberi Cinta". As if "Karipap-Karipap Cinta" is not a gag enough. Ugh....

We Are Actually Better Than Yesterday

Have you ever wondered how your life is in static state - not moving forward and not progressing. You believe that whatever you do, you'd be back to the beginning point, where you had zero. If you do ever feel that way, try to reminisce about your past, preferably a long time ago where the memory is so blurry it almost felt like it didn't happen. One way to do it is by singing in to your email and go to your very first email that you received when you first used that email (of course to do this, you need an email that you have used for a long time). You will be shocked at how different you might sound, how you could actually think, "Wow, is this me? I sound like an idiot!" And you quickly realize that you have gone a long way now - that you are actually better.

I did this just now and coincidentally I was wondering yesterday if my life was actually in a better condition now. When I was going through my emails, I was suddenly moved spiritually to go to my very first emails and boy, do I sound like a kid who asked about the availability of a certain candy in a candy shop. I sounded very immature, childish and, well, embarrassing. And then, I looked at my emails now, and I realized I have gone  along way in my life journey.

I believe that even when you're not trying, your mind is psychologically engineered to be better. You are equipped with the ability to learn from your errors and mistakes, and be better than how you do it today. Just imagine when you are better when you don't realize it, how better could you be when you consciously put your efforts to it? This is the difference between successful and unsuccessful persons. They are mindful of his or her own self and are aware of what he or she is becoming, while others just sit back and wait for miracles.

I believe the first step to becoming mindful to your existence is to be thankful. I admit, sometimes I get lost in my own insecurity and feeling of inadequacy that I forget how lucky I am right now. I don't have to mention in what ways I am so lucky, but we all have our own things to be thankful for, especially YOU.

Malaysia Should Promote Itself Internationally

This is the statement of argument between my friend and I with my friend being the "pro" arguer and me being the "cons" arguer. It's not that I don't want my beloved country to be known internationally, but we have to be realistic right now. The right question we should be asking ourselves is, does Malaysia deserve to be acknowledged internationally?

Our debate is mostly centred around the promotion of Malaysian films, along with other cultures and traditions. I don't think it is a problem to promote our cultures, I'm sure a lot of Malaysian travelers to other countries have already done that well. I remember Aslam who went to Japan to study "promoted" kain pelikat, and my another friend who went to United Kingdom cooks rendang for his White friends, and a lot more other instances. But when it comes to our films, I gagged.

Of all the Malaysian films in 2011 and 2012, which film can you show oh-so-proudly to the international audience? I can say Hikayat Merong Mahawangsa and KL Gangster to have achieved international standard, but others I doubt so. My friend in USM forced me to watch Hantu Bonceng and it was the worst cinema experience in my whole life. It was literally the worst film I have ever seen. The writing was all over the place, the characters were irritating, and although the title gave the impression that there would be a "bonceng" (passenger) ghost, but it appeared around only one-third of the film and the rest was just hillybilly-ness resulting from lazy writing and terrible comedic attempts throughout the film. But what surprises me is that it actually made profit 7 times more than the original budget. Perhaps there was Zizan in it. But all of people I knew who went out of the cinema would complain how bad the film is.

Not just Hantu Bonceng, the Malaysian films have tries so hard, but failed miserably, to combine horror and comedy, and many other just focused on horror. Seriously, why Malaysian writers like horror so much?? Nothing wrong with horror, but there are other genres you know. Films like "Alamak... Toyol!", "Rasuk", "Tolong, Awek Aku Pontianak," made me feel embarrassed to be a Malaysian.

What I am trying to say is, consider other possibilities in terms of genre, writing direction, and target audience when producing a film. Not all Malaysians like comedy and/or horror, especially the ones terrible written!

The Importance of Being Agricultural

Read this:

KUALA LUMPUR 25 Jun - Malaysia mengimport bahan makanan bernilai RM221.81 bilion sejak 10 tahun lepas. Timbalan Menteri Pertanian dan Industri Asas Tani, Datuk Mohd. Johari Baharum berkata, kebanyakan komoditi yang diimport tidak ekonomik untuk dihasilkan dalam negara kerana kos pengeluaran tinggi di samping iklim yang tidak sesuai. "Kumpulan komoditi makanan yang diimport adalah keluaran bahan makanan diproses, bahan makanan ternakan, buahan iklim sederhana, sayur-sayuran dan bijirin. "Antara makanan yang kita import ialah koko, kopi, teh, susu, gandum, epal, oren, ubi kentang, salad, beras dan tepung," katanya ketika menjawab soalan Dr. Siti Mariah Mahmud (Pas-Kota Raja).

Artikel Penuh: http://www.utusan.com.my/utusan/Parlimen/20120626/pa_04/Malaysia-import-makanan-RM221.81b#ixzz2C9IbLOnc © Utusan Melayu (M) Bhd 

220++ billion?? I am surprised to see this. One who is familiar with Malaysia being a country that is packed with its own kind of food would be surprised and shocked to see the number. What do we import? Golden chocolate? 

Disclaimer: This is not a political post nor would I want to mention or advocate for any political party in here. I'm just merely putting my agricultural and economic cap for this post.

I discussed this with one of economics lecturer yesterday (he is not my lecturer, but he is also a committee member for the upcoming International Social Work Conference 2012). And our conclusion made me open my eyes and see how important it is to have a part of your land to be reserved for agriculture. No matter how much industrial you are and rich you are, food will always come first. Just imagine, being a rich country, then suddenly the countries you import food from have a strike, or just don't produce food anymore, or you have a conflict with the countries leading the leaders to stop exporting, you are screwed. You would have to contemplate cooking your money into a soup. 

What surprises me more is that we also import the food that we also can grow in here like rice, beef, and fish. This worries me, because with Malaysia trending towards an industrial nation, agriculture is gradually diminished. And the news I included above quoted that the things that we import are the things that are not "economical". Well, while some food cannot grow in tropical weather like Malaysia, others grow very well. And I don't think cocoa and coffee are unsuitable and uneconomical. I know a local farmer in my village who grows his own coffee beans and make his own coffee blend that he sells in local groceries. 

This is where research is important. My economics lecturer claims that when it comes to research, Malaysia is way backward. I happen to agree. We need to have a strong research culture in Malaysia. Events like conferences should be more advertised and open for general public, rather than the academics or ressearchers or practitioners. 

Religiosity and Spirituality

Today, I had a discussion with one of my lecturers, and this lecturer has a pretty strong stand for the focus of religion in professional social work practice. He has made a lot of points that have their merits and his argument that social work practitioners nowadays might have abandoned the aspect of religion that might be a key to an effective intervention. But there is one statement that he said that made me want to argue back, "If people have a strong religious routine (e.g. going to the mosque/church, making a prayers, etc.) in his life, would he have all the problem that social workers have to deal with nowadays like homelessness and poverty?" That was when I thought that he might have become a little bit simplistic.

I cannot deny the importance of religion, and personally religion is important in my life. But growing up, we know that life is not that simple. Life is not a fairy tale where good things happen to good people and bad things happen to bad people. Simply, life is not a fairy tale. I believe that being a professional practitioner in any field, one must know that a human's life is the result of multiple factors, and attempting to pin down events of an individual's life on a single cause might be a little bit too naive. Juvenile delinquency is a perfect example. Some "religious" people argue that if these youths have a strong religion, they would not resort to such lifestyle. Well, now answer this, why are there still some young people who come from religious family and still turn to be delinquents? This is because factors of juvenile delinquency is so many that I'm sure some of them have not been studied yet by researchers in this field.

This is when I would like to point out that there is a distinction between religiosity and spirituality. For me, religion is a source of spirituality, but it's not the only one. Have you seen some atheists that might be a better person than some people who claim to be religious? Yeah, that is because they have a stronger and better spiritual self. I would like to define religiosity as a way people have a relationship with a greater power who they depend on for strength and serenity, while spirituality is the faith, strength, and serenity that one has. So, in a way, spirituality is a result of religion, and it can be a result of multiple other things, like gratefulness, temporal happiness, or positive view on life.

Religion is, no doubt, one of the strongest source of spirituality which can help in overcoming life's challenges, but sadly religion has been a justification to some unfortunate things, and this is where we can see that religion is actually a tool, rather than a result. Events like terrorism, racism, ethnocentrism, discrimination and some other show us that some people could abuse the privilege of having a religion.

So, for me, you make a prayer to be stronger when you are facing a difficulty, NOT to miraculously and suddenly get out of your problem. The second one is why some people always blame religion when nothing good happens to them. This is because they don't understand that while we have pray, Islam, and I'm sure other religion too, urge us to make efforts and have tawakkal (surrender) for it. Sitting and praying all the time does not count as efforts, it is laziness. After all, who says that only prayers are ibadah (a religious act)? Islam has said that doing good things such as feeding your family, gaining knowledge, eating, doing sports, etc. can also be ibadah.

So, I am calling all of you, and me because sometimes I forget too, to never abuse the definition of religion that we have. Religion is only beneficial to you when you know how to embrace it in your life, but saying, "Oh, Islam asks me to do this..." when you want to go to a mosque for a month, leaving your family behind starving and penniless until your family is a suitable target for a welfare service in JKM, and your son rebels by using drugs, then, this might seem very religious, but this is not spiritual, this is not a good Muslim at all, or a Christian, or from any other religion.

Be moderate, as Mufti Ismail Menk said in a Fiqh Convention I attended earlier this year. Be religious, be spiritual, also consider worldly affairs in your life.

The Year of Marriage

2012 - It's the year where almost 70% of people I know closely in my life got married/are getting married/are getting engaged/got engaged. It's also the year in my life where the matter of marriage seems to be heavily featured. Almost 80% of the conversations I had with them involved something about getting married. If my life were a TV show, this season would be themed on marriage.

Any one of my friends who read this might have known already that my heart is set not to get married. Aslam, my best friend (who is also getting married in December), told me that he had always wondered why he had such friends who seemed to be married with their career, and it included me. Career has always been an important aspect of my life, perhaps because it's the one thing that I'm sure I can own and hold on to very tightly in my life. If I am careful and strong in my grip, I'd just have career as the one thing that I am fully satisfied.

Then, another one of my friends, after I poured my heart out about all of the people I know are now married,  asked me a rhetorical question, "So, isn't it now the time for you to settle down and find a wife of your own?" He has a point, but he doesn't know the whole story. I am not trying to makes excuses, but when it comes to finding a life partner, things are more complicated than usual - and I would like to admit that it might be more complicated than an average person's mission in finding a life partner.

What I need to do is figure things out as I venture through life. I just hope when I finally have everything figured out, it's not all too late.

One Extreme Hating Another Extreme

I was reading this news after being shown by one of the professors at my school and I just can't over how many there are idiots who just hate Islam in the name of "no violence", "freedom of speech," or even very specifically, "Islam is terrorism." I get it, terrorism is an unfortunate event and I myself seriously abhor that kind of extreme point making. No matter what religion you are, if you use violence to shove your belief down other people's throat, you are not and should not in any way affiliated with any religion - especially Islam because it is indeed a religion of peace.

The one thing I don't understand is that while these people seem to claim that they hate extremism, they are also on an extreme side, just the opposite. Burning the Holy Quran, making an offensive film about Islam, and the Prophet, insulting Islam on the ground of freedom of speech, drawing cartoons insulting Prophet, all of these are just ways ignorance works. While it is true that some people, no matter what religion they are, can be extremists and use extreme measures to force people to accept their beliefs which is a form of ignorance, but to generalize these people to others who are peace-loving and just plain innocent is another kind of ignorance. So, it's beating ignorance using ignorance, which wouldn't result well.

I am just surprised that after Blacks are finally accepted in the mainstream, and females are now treated as equal and males, and other minority groups who used to be treated unjustly are now progressing towards a new fair and balance modern world, bigotry seems to never pass a group of people who are called "Muslims". Because of an action of a few, Muslims in general are regarded as violent. Don't believe me? Go to websites that collect supposedly funny posts from various people around the world like 9gag and HugeLOL and see how people abuse the privilege of voicing their own opinions.

I just wish this stops someday. It's getting tiring each time...

The First Step

You probably have heard this advice on procrastination, "take the first step then you'd find yourself following through..." This is my own version of the advice, but you get the idea. This is quite true. Often time when I am back from a holiday or a long trip and return to school/work, I would find myself very difficult to restart my routine and work. When I went to Sabah for 6 days and returned this week, I took 4 days to finally restart the thesis-writing process that I stopped before going there. Usually, in the past, when this happened, I took advantage of the "take the first step" advice and I usually would follow through. Once I took the first step, I found myself feeling guilty if I lived a day without doing even a little of writing. But, now I realize there is a new matter to handle, how do you get to do the first step? Honestly, I can't remember how I did it in the past.

But, one theory says that we keep delaying the inevitable because of our fear about how much to be done and that we might figure out something along the way (Barth, 2011). This makes sense, because when we are triumphed by the feelings that we might not get anything done because there's too much of them, we secretly wish for a miracle. Maybe someone might come in our way and be kind enough to offer help. Maybe in a day or two, we are told by our boss that the work is no longer necessary to be handed in. Maybe that, maybe this. But, you know deep in your heart, it's not true - well, it's more likely than not to the untrue.

Barth outlines several suggestions as to how we can take the first step. First, she says that perhaps our anxieties to take the first step might be warranted after all. Listen to your fears and listen to what your mind is telling you. But if it is something you have to do now, then, ask yourself, what constitutes the 'real' first step in terms of your tasks. For example, for me to start writing my thesis after stopping for a week, opening my laptop might not be a first step, but rather 1/10 of the first step. What I need is to open the document and write the first sentence. I did that and suddenly the motivation to start writing pours in and I find myself writing for 3 pages in 2 hours.

Barth also emphasizes on supports by your family and friends. Of course this is true too. But for me, what is more important is that you know your tasks well and you know what you should do to be able to start. It's understanding your tasks and get familiar and be acquainted with it.

Reference:

Barth, F. D. (2011). Taking the First Step. Extracted from Psychology Today - http://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/the-couch/201107/taking-the-first-step